Rathish
Author – Ritesh Ranjan: The global race toward net-zero emissions has reached a critical juncture. A recent study by Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IITM) has raised concerns that renewable energy (RE) may not overtake fossil fuels as the dominant global energy source until the mid-2050s—well beyond the 2050 targets set during the COP28 summit.
This revelation highlights a growing “ambition gap” between climate goals and real-world progress. While renewable capacity has expanded rapidly, fossil fuels still dominate global energy consumption. The study calls for urgent action—doubling renewable investments and significantly upgrading energy infrastructure—to stay on track for climate targets.
Current Reality: Renewables Growing, But Not Fast Enough
Globally, renewable energy capacity reached approximately 3,870 GW in 2023, marking a 128% increase over the past decade. Despite this impressive growth, renewables account for only about 14.6% of primary energy consumption, while fossil fuels still dominate at around 81%.
This imbalance underscores a key issue: growth in renewable capacity does not immediately translate into a proportional share in overall energy consumption. Rising global demand—driven by industrialization, population growth, and electrification—continues to sustain fossil fuel dependency.
Scenario Analysis: When Will Renewables Overtake Fossils?
The IIT Madras study analyzed multiple scenarios based on data from agencies like International Energy Agency and International Renewable Energy Agency. The findings reveal a wide range of possible outcomes:
- Current Growth Rate (5.48%)
Renewables reach 50% share between 2047 and 2053, depending on demand growth. - Accelerated Growth (11%)
Doubling investment and deployment could bring the milestone forward to 2035–2037. - Worst-Case Scenario
If progress slows, renewables may not dominate until after 2074.
Notably, the study does not factor in rising electricity demand from AI technologies and data centers, which could further delay the transition.
India’s Tightrope: Growth vs Emissions
India stands at a unique crossroads. While its per capita emissions remain relatively low, its total emissions are rising due to rapid economic growth and industrialization.
Key Targets and Progress
- 485 GW Renewable Energy by 2030
- 293 GW solar
- 100 GW wind
- Current Capacity (FY25): ~220 GW clean energy
- Non-Fossil Share: ~50% of installed capacity
India has made significant progress, achieving half of its non-fossil capacity target ahead of schedule. However, the journey ahead remains complex.
Key Challenges
- Grid Infrastructure: Existing grids struggle to handle intermittent renewable supply.
- Energy Storage: India currently has only ~5 GW of battery storage capacity.
- Rural Electrification: Nearly 300 million people still require reliable energy access.
Balancing economic growth with emissions reduction is one of India’s biggest policy challenges.
Why Renewables Alone Are Not Enough
The IITM study emphasizes that renewable energy alone cannot achieve net-zero targets. A multi-pronged strategy is essential.
1. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS)
Technologies that capture up to 90% of carbon emissions from fossil fuel use are crucial, especially for heavy industries. India has initiated pilot projects worth ₹80 crore.
2. Energy Storage Solutions
- Battery storage (target: 500 GWh)
- Green hydrogen for long-term storage
3. Energy Efficiency
Measures like LED adoption and electric vehicles (EVs) could reduce energy demand by up to 20%.
4. Smart Grids
Modern, flexible grids are necessary to manage the variability of solar and wind power.
Investment Imperative: Scale or Fail
The study highlights a massive global funding gap:
- Required Investment: $4 trillion annually
- Current Investment: Approximately half of the requirement
India’s Investment Needs
India alone requires around ₹25 lakh crore in renewable energy investments by 2030.
Despite challenges, there are positive signs:
- 29 GW of renewable capacity added in FY25
- Solar energy leading the growth trajectory
However, without sustained financial and policy support, these gains may not be enough.
Global Context: A Reality Check
Despite rapid growth, renewables still contribute only about 14% of global primary energy, while fossil fuels account for the majority of CO₂ emissions.
Diverging Projections
- International Renewable Energy Agency: Optimistic—90% renewable share by 2050
- International Energy Agency: More conservative outlook
India’s “Panchamrit” commitments—including 500 GW of non-fossil capacity—position it as a global leader, but execution remains key.
The Road Ahead: Policy and Technology Action Plan
For India
- Increase solar auctions to 50 GW annually
- Scale up green hydrogen production to 5 MMT
- Develop CCUS hubs with private sector participation
Global Priorities
- Strengthen international grid connectivity
- Expand subsidies for clean energy
- Accelerate technology transfer between nations
Conclusion
The Indian Institute of Technology Madras study delivers a stark warning: without immediate and large-scale action, the world risks missing its climate targets by decades.
Renewable energy is growing—but not fast enough to displace fossil fuels within the required timeframe. The path to net-zero demands not just ambition, but execution—through investments, innovation, and global cooperation.
The message is clear: the technology exists, but the urgency must match the scale of the challenge. The next decade will determine whether the world achieves its climate goals—or falls irreversibly behind.
FAQs
1. What does the IIT Madras study say about renewable energy timelines?
The study suggests that at current growth rates, renewables may only reach 50% of global energy consumption between 2047 and 2053, missing the 2050 net-zero target.
2. Why are fossil fuels still dominant despite renewable growth?
Fossil fuels continue to dominate due to rising global energy demand, infrastructure limitations, and slower-than-needed investment in renewables and storage technologies.
3. What are the biggest challenges for renewable energy adoption in India?
Key challenges include inadequate grid infrastructure, limited energy storage capacity, and the need to balance economic growth with emissions reduction.
4. How much investment is required to meet global climate targets?
Around $4 trillion per year is needed globally, which is nearly double the current investment levels.
5. Can renewable energy alone achieve net-zero emissions?
No, a combination of renewable energy, carbon capture technologies, energy storage, and efficiency improvements is necessary to achieve net-zero goals.